Risk Types

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"Black Swan" events are described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his bestselling book:  The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable.  

They:

• are hidden and rare
• are highly improbable / unforeseeable yet often explained in hindsight as if highly predictable
• involve no choice to respond
• 9/11, WMD

"Gray Rhino" events are described by Michele Wucker in her bestselling book:  The Gray Rhino - How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.  

They:

• are obvious and foreseeable
• are highly probable
• involve a choice to respond, or not
• most likely responses are inadequate
• ignored / dismissed
• pandemics, climate risk

Geopolitical Risks can be described as black swans, gray rhinos and all the animals in a jungle and rainforest combined!  

They:

• can be hidden or obvious
• are improbable or probable
• involve a decision on how to respond
• are firm specific
• are diverse & complex
• constantly change
• are inherent in most ESG issues & the UN's SDGs
• regulatory risk, sanctions, political violence & more