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Risk Types

Unforeseeable / Hidden Risks

Unforeseeable / Hidden Risks

Unforeseeable / Hidden Risks

"Black Swan" events are described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his bestselling book:  The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable.  

They:

  • are hidden and rare
  • are highly improbable / unforeseeable yet often explained in hindsight as if highly predictable
  • involve no choice to respond
  • 9/11, WMD

Foreseeable / Obvious Risks

Unforeseeable / Hidden Risks

Unforeseeable / Hidden Risks

"Gray Rhino" events are described by Michele Wucker in her bestselling book:  The Gray Rhino - How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.  

They:

  • are obvious and foreseeable
  • are highly probable
  • involve a choice to respond, or not
  • most likely responses are inadequate
  • ignored / dismissed
  • pandemics, climate risk

Geopolitical Risks

Unforeseeable / Hidden Risks

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical Risks can be described as black swans, gray rhinos and all the animals in a jungle and rainforest combined!  

They:

  • can be hidden or obvious
  • are improbable or probable
  • involve a decision on how to respond
  • are firm specific
  • are diverse & complex
  • constantly change
  • are inherent in most ESG issues & the UN's SDGs
  • regulatory risk, sanctions, political violence & more

Find out more

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